Infant Mortality in Iraq and Iran: A Comparative and Predictive Study

Abstract

Infant mortality is one of the most important indicators of the A country’s health status and socio-economic development. Classified as the death of an infant before his or her first birthday, the rate of infant mortality is an indicator of whether a society has sufficient healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and maternal services. The research presents comparative predictive analysis for Iraqi and Iranian infant mortality rates (IMR) during the period 2025–2032 with the help of exponential grey mod. These findings demonstrate a high effectiveness of the proposed aforementioned application with achieved mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 0.795% and 0.907% for Iraq and Iran, respectively, which correspond to accuracy rates of 99.20% and 99.09%, both as both Iraq and Iran’s MAPE values in the “Highly accurate.” Corresponding precision values also classifies the decisions in “Highly accurate” (P ≥ 99.0%). A historical comparison showed a significant difference in infant mortality when comparing Iraq (mean = 27.37) with Iran (mean = 15.57) with P = 0.000. Projections for 2025–2032 also indicate a difference between the two nations, as a country average IMR in Iraq will be 18.32, and, it accounts for 8.41 for Iran, with statistical significance (P = 0.000). It also forecasts falls in the number of births, with Iraq’s dropping from 20.13 in 2025 to 16.61 in 2032, and Iran’s from 9.63 to 7.28. These results validate that the exponential grey mod model offers a superior forecasting model that has great stability and performance for these two countries (Iraq and Iran) to supply decision makers with high-quality forecasts.